Over the last two decades, America’s Child Protective Service (CPS) systems have seen the number of African American families on caseloads increase. In most jurisdictions, African Americans are more likely than Whites, Hispanics, or Asians to have allegations of maltreatment substantiated and to have children placed in out-of-home care. This trend is particularly disturbing when viewed in the context of the National Incidence Studies (NIS), which conclude that there are no differences in maltreatment rates for African Americans and Whites. If these studies are accurate, they raise serious questions about the disproportionate number of African American families in America’s child protection system. Some have worried (or even concluded) that as more and more CPS agencies implement actuarial risk assessment systems, racial bias will be exacerbated. Rather than speculate about the potential impact of research-based systems on the over-representation of African Americans, CRC has reviewed data from agencies using actuarial risk assessments to determine if these systems have resulted in a greater level of disparity between African Americans and Whites. This paper answers questions about the relationships between risk, race, and recurrence of abuse and neglect. It presents the actual experiences of states using actuarial risk assessment and clarifies precisely how equity issues should be evaluated.
