LnRiLWhlYWRpbmcuaGFzLWJhY2tncm91bmR7cGFkZGluZzowfQ==
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
New Research on Machine Learning in Youth Justice
April 3, 2026 | Evident Change
When a young person ends up in a group home or juvenile facility, it’s a common assumption that it’s because of what they did. But new research tells a different story.
Director of Research Dr. Erin Espinosa and Evident Change board member Dr. Monica Chiarini Tremblay are among the authors of a new paper published by the INFORMS Journal on Computing. “Integrating Mental Health and Juvenile Justice Outcomes: A Case Study of Model-Agnostic Interpretable Machine Learning” details an exploration using machine learning of data on hundreds of youth in Texas.
The study found that mental health needs—not public safety concerns—are often what drive decisions about detaining youth. In fact, when a standardized assessment found that a young person needed a specific level of mental health care but the system provided something different, the mismatch was one of the strongest predictors of a young person ending up in an out-of-home placement.
Ultimately, this research provides justice leaders with the data needed to shift focus from measuring individual youth risk to addressing systemic institutional problems.
The full text is available by request from INFORMS. If you have questions about the research, please contact Dr. Erin Espinosa.
When a young person ends up in a group home or juvenile facility, it’s a common assumption that it’s because of what they did. But new research tells a different story. Director of Research Dr. Erin Espinosa and Evident Change board member Dr. Monica Chiarini Tremblay are among the authors of a new paper published…
